i'm a nonbeliever
i don't believe gods [though
kate moss and milla jovovic approach goddess]
talking elephants lifting the planet on the back of a turtle
partings of the seas & c
.
neither am i "spiritual"
of which you hear a lot here in cali
i equate that word with the heaven's gate people in nike airs
or tom cruise e-metering aliens crash landing in volcanos to sprout humanity
as well as females w no hobbies filling their own head w the silly
minds thin like shrouds
of turin
.
i don't believe
predictions like miss cleo
and analytic and financial industries
these sectors are in need of debunking
that simons runs a most profitable "arbitrage"
is a proprietary "black box" mystery, but
one compatible with luck
he also advised alma mater
to pay madoff
.
i don't believe it's possible
to "maximize risk-adjusted returns"
there's no god to point to the golden risk metric
there are many gods pointing at many risk metrics
of varying profitability and
plausibility
.
i don't believe
that nfc has won twice as
many superbowl coin tosses as afc
and the last 13 in a row because a cabal
of national conference teams have
developed telekinesis
even though
that's what
statistical consultants
would tell you that's what s.a.s
software tells them
. .
.
. ..soon.. .
"the nfc cointoss hotstreak problem"
> statigrafix complexity notes <
.
. .
i don't believe there's a good reason
why one visa charged me 5%, another one 30%
from my one underlying case history if not fico score
.
while we're at it i don't believe machine learning will ever
promise human-like inverse pattern recognition such
as taking something the size of moby dick
and compress it to a legible
1000 word abstract
it cannot matter
how many examples
of abstraction are offered in
training. don't invest in "ai" hype
autonomous ai but with software updates?
.
i don't believe six-sigma black belts for a minute
the problem is revealed in the name itself
plus or minus 3 standard deviations
from the mean of a bell curve
the stochastic object
best representing
"linear thinking"
.
i don't believe
peer reviewers at
new england j medicine
understand kolmogorov probability
or shannon information. data collection efforts
squandered compressing results way beyond distortion
would you reduce an mp3 music file to a
single number like p<0.005?
this is neither science
nor really helping
patients
.
like the
legal profession, which
has a more realistic relationship
with uncertainty and complexity
correlation versus causality
i don't believe these medical results
statistical experts for plaintiff and defense
are guaranteed to hang interpretation
from vioxx to toxins. both sides are right
there is no unique interpretation
so both sides are wrong
a clash of civilizations
fought over
logics
.
i don't believe
steven pinker has ever set
foot in a biomedical
library
.
i don't
believe biologist davydov
has had a conversation with physicist gell-mann
about how path-dependent processes like evolutions, being
far from equilibrium, yield cambrian explosions of heterogeneity
maybe the price of emerging above
the 2nd law
.
i don't
believe jacques ricard's
integration-linearity-emergence paradigm
can be quite right, for his ant trail analogy is not
an integrated process but emergent behavior
.
i don't believe there can me more than 1k people
worldwide who can spot counterexamples
of "equilibrium" and "cycles"
.
i'm skeptical that america
will be the #1 econ for much longer
attention spans spent debating 50/50 red blue
and darwinian origins, while china puts people in space
and "cyber probes" our electrical grid controls
.
i don't believe i'll be seeing
wolverine: origins
won't believe
frame 1

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fewer-xians.jpg

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since 1990 americans identifying themselves as xians has decreased
to 77% from 86% while atheists have gained in every state, totaling 15%
nyt + am religious identification survey @trinity college